Washington Redskins (4-6, 5-5 ATS) vs Dallas Cowboys (5-5, 4-6 ATS) @ Cowboys Stadium, 4.15 on FOX
Line: DAL by 3
Total: 48

The Dallas Cowboys are 28-15-1 all time on Thanksgiving, winning five of their last six. When I dug a little deeper into the numbers, there were some very odd trends, Dallas is 6-19 when they are the favorite over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 5-15 against the spread at Cowboy Stadium. Dallas clearly has a history of playing down to opponents much like last weeks OT win versus Cleveland. While this is Dallas and Washington’s first meeting this season, Dallas is 3-1 over the last three seasons, but funny enough the Redskins are 4-0 against the spread over that same time and nobody mistaking those teams for the Art Monk/Joe Riggins ‘Skins of old. There’s two ways I see this game going.

Scenario One: On short rest the Skin’s offensive line does not have the same push on short rest to control the clock thru the ground like they want to do. RG3 goes all Madden-Vick, and he and Pierre Garcon continue to run those school yard plays where RG3 run one way, jukes a couple of defenders, and hurls the ball across the field in the “there’s no way!…..WOW!!! how did he find that guy” moments (like at the 1.08 mark of the video below), which works with varying success. This gives Tony Romo and Cowboys to take chances on Washington’s weak secondary (289.2 yards against in the air, Safety Brandon Meriwether is not playing today) Dez Bryant continues his improved play when he lines up against the less physical/head case in DeAngelo Hall. This ends up being another close game with a final drive to win (for Dallas fans this scares the crap out of them either way).

Scenario Two: Mike Shanahan lays a coaching beat down on Jason Garrett. Washington continues their running dominance (166 ypg) with Dallas missing both defensive tackles Jay Ratliff and Keyon Coleman, this frees up the Skins to double up on DeMarcus Ware. RG3 follows up a stellar performance last week against Philly, 14-15 for 200 yards and 4 TDs, with a healthy mix of play-action pass and scripted runs. The Cowboys without LT Tyron Smith and both centers in Phil Costa and Ryan Cook struggle to protect Romo, and create little space for ‘boys running backs. Redskins win in a rout.

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